The French Parliamentary Ongoing Crisis: The Dawn of a Fresh Governmental Reality

In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he was the fifth British prime minister to take up the role in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in France, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the past 10 months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Essential context: ever since Macron called an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”