Polls Open in the Netherlands as Surveys Suggest Potential Second Victory for Firebrand Leader Geert Wilders

The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.