Pitches, Balls and Reserves – The Areas Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost

Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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